Fire OblationTier 2
at Ascent Manila 2026
decks
26
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
229
100-110-19
overall winrate
47.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.9%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
48.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1319
· median 1294
· range 1113–1535
(26 pilots with an ELO rating)
1061
Q1 1211
Q3 1431
1730
15% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
19% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 36 | 9-25-2 | 27.8% | 30.0% | 34.3% | -5.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 18 | 10-7-1 | 58.3% | 56.8% | 58.0% | +3.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.9% | 20 | 6-11-3 | 37.5% | 39.6% | 46.4% | -1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.8% | 12 | 6-6-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +0.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 11 | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -4.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.7% | 11 | 8-2-1 | 77.3% | 70.0% | 78.8% | +12.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.7% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 47.5% | -1.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 18 | 6-7-5 | 47.2% | 47.7% | 49.6% | -0.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -0.8 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 11 | 6-4-1 | 59.1% | 56.7% | 58.3% | +3.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 59.7% | +5.6 |
| Wind Chess | 2.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 72.9% | +17.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 59.4% | +5.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 67.3% | +10.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.3% | +6.2 |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +1.8 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 33.2% | -8.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.9% | +8.3 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.0% | -0.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.4% | +2.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -1.8 |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.3% | -9.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.9% | +18.2 |
| Fire Exia | 0.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 32.9% | -12.7 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -3.7 |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.4 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Water Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Water Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.6% | +7.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -3.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.6% | -15.8 |
Decklists · 26 from this event
The 26 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 10 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Topsy Decree, Devastating Blow, Abnegation. Losers more often ran: Carter, Synthetic Reaper, Stalwart Shieldmate, Immolation Trap.
Topsy Decree
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Devastating Blow
Winning decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Abnegation
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Hasty Messenger
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 3.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Library Witch
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 3.6.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Carter, Synthetic Reaper
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.6.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Losing decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
winning decks 3.1.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Immolation Trap
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Spirelle, Schwartz Queen
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Cremation Ritual
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.6.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Banned
Grim Pastiche
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Show all 62 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Topsy Decree | +0.70 | 8 | 1 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.40 | 5 | 1 | 4 | |
| Abnegation | +0.40 | 5 | 1 | 4 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.40 | 0 | 4 | 6 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.30 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.30 | 2 | 5 | 3 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.30 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| Library Witch | +0.30 | 3 | 0 | 7 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +0.30 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.20 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.20 | 2 | 4 | 4 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.10 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Devouring Malice | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Golden Pawn | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Twisted Verdict | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Feu Awakening | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Folded Shadows | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Reflected Blight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 4 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |